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Huttons’ comments on October 2022 developer’s sales

Posted by alvintay on November 21, 2022
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EDM-Developer-Sales-Infographic-Oct-22

Developers launched 102 units and sold 312 units in October. Sales in October plunged by 68.4% month-on-month and 65.8% lower year-on-year. This is the lowest monthly sales since Apr 2020 where only 277 units were sold.

The number of units launched for sale sank to a record low in October. This is the lowest number of units launched for sale in 2022 and the lowest since Sep 2017.

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Two key reasons are behind the low sales – critically low unsold stock in the market and a lack of major launches. The estimated launched and unsold units stand at 2,031 as of end-Oct 2022. This limited the choices for buyers and capped the monthly sales. Buyers are not so concerned over the high interest rates as the drawdown on loan for new homes is on a progressive basis.

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In October, the Core Central Region (CCR) saw 171 units sold while the RCR moved 81 units and the OCR 60 units. The proportion of sales in the CCR hit a high of 54.8% in October, surpassing the previous peak of 50.5% in August.

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As the CCR tends to attract more purchases by foreigners, the proportion of foreigners in October shot up to 11.7%, up from 4.5% in September.

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Proportion of Purchase by Foreigners

Oct-22-1
Source: URA, Huttons Research as of 15 Nov 2022

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The top projects with sales to foreigners in October are mainly in the CCR.

Top 3 Projects with sales to foreigners in October 2022

Oct-22-2
Source: URA, Huttons Research as of 15 Nov 2022

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With more sales in the CCR, the proportion of sales $2 million and above made up 64.4% in October. The percentage of sales below $1.5 million fell to 11%, the lowest ever. This is not surprising given that there is limited unsold units below $1.5 million and the price point of projects in the market has moved above $1.5 million.

Purchases by Residential Status and Price Range in September

Oct-22-3

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Top 10 Projects by Sales in Oct 2022

Oct-22-4

The second EC launch in 2022, Copen Grand saw overwhelming response, selling 73% on the first day of sale. The recent property cooling measures have little impact on the demand for ECs, as buyers on the deferred payment scheme can use the construction period to build up their savings.

Based on Huttons’ estimates, a couple earning up to $14,000 a month and taking a 75 per cent loan over 30 years need 3.1 years of contribution to their CPF to make up for the lower loan amount. The next balloting for Copen Grand will be on 26 November. Interest is strong for the remaining units and that will give a boost to EC sales in November.

As the end of the year approaches, most buyers are busy preparing for an overseas holiday. There may not be any major launch in November and December. Four boutique projects are scheduled for launch in November and December – Claydence, Hill House, Kovan Jewel and Sophia Regency. The depleting unsold stock also limits choices for buyers. Furthermore, the upcoming quadrennial World Cup in November and December may have a minimal impact on sales.

Developers are estimated to have sold 6,721 units in the first ten months of 2022. Sales in November and December are estimated to be similar to October as unsold stock get whittled down and no planned major launches. This will bring the full year sales to not more than 7,500 units. Prices are estimated to be 1-2% in 4Q 2022, bringing full year price gains of around 10% in 2022.

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