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Huttons’ comments on September 2022 developer’s sales

Posted by alvintay on October 17, 2022

Developers launched 913 units and sold 987 units in September. Sales in September more than doubled from August numbers on the back of excellent sales achieved for Lentor Modern and Sky Eden@Bedok. September sales are 125.3% higher month-on-month and 18.3% higher year-on-year. The number of units launched in September jumped 6.8 times from August’s 134 units. Despite the higher volume of units launched for sale, monthly sales have once again exceeded the launch units, reflecting the strong demand for private homes. This is the 13th month that sales have exceeded units launched for sale.

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Lentor Modern sold 512 units at a median price of $2,108 psf while Sky Eden@Bedok moved 121 units at a median price of $2,118 psf. Together, these two launches accounted for 633 units or 64.1% of September’s sales.

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Despite the benchmark prices, the strong sales at Lentor Modern and Sky Eden@Bedok reflected the demand and desire from buyers for a private home. HDB upgraders were taking the opportunity to ride on the strong HDB resale market to buy a private home. As buying a new home is on progressive payment and the first drawdown on loan is usually 1 year later, this will allow buyers to ride out the current high interest environment.

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The launch of these 2 major projects in the OCR bumped up the proportion of homes up to $1.5 million to 22.3% which is more than double the proportion of 10.6% in August. 38.3% of the transactions in September are between $1.5 million to $2 million and 39.4% above $2 million.

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Purchases by Residential Status and Price Range in September

Sep 2022
Source: URA, Huttons Research as of 17 Oct 2022

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About 25% of the sales at Lentor Modern and Sky Eden@Bedok are below $1.5 million, 45.7% in the range of $1.5 million to $2 million and the remaining 29.4% above $2 million. The $1.5 million to $2 million appears to be the sweet spot pricing for homes in the OCR moving forward.

Breakdown of 2 Project Launches by Price Range

Sep 2022 v2
Source: URA, Huttons Research as of 17 Oct 2022

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The Core Central Region (CCR) saw 198 units sold while the RCR moved 103 units and the OCR 686 units. Buying in the CCR has stayed strong. The impact of cooling measures and interest rate is not expected to affect demand and prices for homes in the CCR. There is ample liquidity in the market and usually buyers of homes in the CCR have the wherewithal to make up for the shortfall in loan amount.
As almost 70% of the sales in September were in the OCR, foreigners made up a smaller share of the overall sales.

Proportion of Purchase by Foreigners 

Sep 2022 v3

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The top projects with sales to foreigners in September are mainly in the CCR.

Top 5 Projects with sales to foreigners in Sep 2022

Sep 2022 v4

Top 10 Projects by Sales in Sep 2022

Sep 2022 v5

Depleting unsold inventory and a lack of major launches in October is likely to cap sales to a range of 300 and 400 units.

Copen Grand, the first luxury executive condominium in Tengah will open for sales booking on 22 October. Interest in the EC is very strong and sales could exceed 50% of the 639-unit project. The availability of deferred payment scheme for qualifying buyers will be a key attraction for buyers as it allows them to ride out the current high interest rate environment.

There will be two launches in the CCR in Nov – Hill House and Sophia Regency. The quantum for these two projects is very attractive for those who desire to own a prime District 9 address. Kovan Jewel in the OCR may be launch for sale in Nov.

Developers are estimated to have sold 6,432 units in the first nine months of 2022. Boutique-sized launches are expected for 4Q 2022. With unsold inventory running low, developer sales are likely to be not more than 8,000 units in 2022. Prices are estimated to be flattish in 4Q 2022, bringing full year price gains of around 8% in 2022.

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